Texas’ major metro areas have led the way in recovering from the economic fallout caused by the COVID pandemic, and the Dallas area leads the state in the outlook for jobs growth and output over the next five years, according to a new forecast from Waco-based The Perryman Group.
Perryman’s analysis splits the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan statistical area into two metro divisions, but the forecast calls for 438,600 new jobs in DFW over the next five years when the two are combined. The DFW total far outpaces second-place Houston and the much smaller Austin and San Antonio MSAs.
The Dallas-Plano-Irving and Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown metro areas will lead the state in terms of the rate of employment growth, while the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission areas will also equal or outpace the state overall in job growth over the next five years, according to The Perryman Report & Texas Letter.
The rate of job growth measures the percentage of jobs gained as opposed to the sheer number of new jobs added.
The economy in the Dallas-Plano-Irving metropolitan division economy has recovered well from the pandemic, with substantial job gains and an unemployment rate significantly below what is typically considered “full employment,” Perryman’s report says. Diverse growth is expected to continue to power the Dallas-area economy, with expansion across all segments.
Output in Dallas is projected to grow at a 3.83% pace, increasing by an estimated $73.5 billion. All industrial sectors are expected to expand, with output gains concentrated in the services, financial activities, and trade industry groups. Wage and salary employment is likely to grow by nearly 325,900 net new positions during the period, a 2.24% yearly pace.
In the Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine metro division, the output is projected to increase at a 3.61% annual rate through 2026 for a gain of more than $21.9 billion. Over the same period, wage and salary employment is projected to rise by close to 112,700 jobs, a 2.01% annual gain. The area’s services sector is expected to lead job growth, with expansion in output being dominated by the services, manufacturing, and trade industry sectors.
The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA has experienced notable job growth recently even as key industries of energy and shipping worked through pandemic issues, the report says. With the invasion of Ukraine and the recent surge in oil prices and global energy needs, it is anticipated that the metro area will see spillover benefits. Through 2026, The Perryman Group’s most recent forecast indicates output expansion at a 3.79% pace, a gain of about $87.7 billion. Wage and salary employment is likely to increase by nearly 349,100 jobs during the period, a 2.15% yearly pace. The services sector is projected to have the largest gains in both output and employment over the next five years.
Meanwhile, the unemployment level in the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown MSA has fallen to around 2.5%, which is near the lowest level reached before the pandemic. The area continues to attract major locations and expansions, headlined by the addition of Tesla, setting the stage for future growth. Through 2026, the Austin area is projected to see gains in output at a 3.75% yearly rate, for an overall increase of nearly $29.8 billion. Almost 130,000 net new jobs are likely to be added, a 2.17% annual growth rate, bringing wage and salary employment to about 1.27 million aggregate positions by 2026. Job gains are projected to be highest in the services sector, which is expected to add nearly 84,200 jobs by 2026, a 3.07% growth rate.
Some of the highlights on the DFW economic development front cited in Perryman’s report include:
Fort Worth: Ground has been broken on a rare-earth magnetics and materials manufacturing facility at AllianceTexas. MP Magnet’s 200,000 square foot plant should create 150 permanent and 1,300 indirect jobs.
Frisco: Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association (TIAA) is investing about $58 million in a corporate center at The Star development. The project is expected to bring 2,000 jobs to the area by the end of 2029.
In addition, the country’s largest frozen Mexican foods manufacturer is establishing a co-headquarters in the city. Ruiz Foods plans to create around 125 jobs by 2026.
McKinney: Medical City McKinney recently completed an emergency room expansion and construction of a $64 million patient tower. The hospital is also investing over $17 million and adding 24,000 square feet of space to its women’s services department.
By Bill Hethcock – Senior Reporter, Dallas Business Journal
